Senior year. We both had just won the wrestling division championships a couple in our respective weight classes. We were on top of the world. He’s a successful dentist now. I’m an immigration attorney. I remember this day as if it were yesterday. Time flies.

Copper is an important industrial metal and remains the key transitional metal in our view for the ongoing renewable revolution.
Historically, copper also has an almost unbeaten record for sniffing out economic strength and weakness before many other commodities. Fondly called Dr. Copper for this very reason, the copper industry is an essential part of the global economy and demand is closely tied to overall economic growth.
According to the Copper Alliance (a leading advocate for the copper industry), one tonne of copper is enough to build 40 cars, power 100,000 mobile phones, drive operations in 400 computers and bring electricity to 30 homes.
Historically, there has been a strong correlation between copper and oil, as both are affected by the same economic factors and market conditions. Energy costs make up a significant portion of the costs of copper extraction, smelting and refining, so there is a material basis for copper and oil prices to fluctuate in unison.
Oil is also a critical power source for economic activity, and quickly reflects falling or rising economic output. Oil accounts for about 3% of GDP and is one of the world’s most important commodities. Petroleum is essential to the manufacture of innumerable products from plastics and chemicals to clothing, and constitutes billions of dollars of transactions, even before considering its use as a fuel for transportation.
For a short video summary of this report, look here: https://youtu.be/6zX6yTk6jYU
A decline or expansion of the world economy almost always results in an increase or decline of oil and copper prices. Forecasts of the respective prices and consumption of these two commodities, are generally set and revised with projections of global economic growth. Case in point, economists will often perceive a rise in oil prices as news of inflationary or recessionary tailwinds.
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However, we’ve noticed something strange happening lately. We are seeing a decoupling of copper and oil prices, with copper prices rising dramatically year to date while oil prices are struggling amid global inflationary concerns and a worldwide banking crisis.
Oil vs. Copper Price (Year to Date %)
So why is copper holding up so much better than oil, when forecasters expect slowing economic growth, tightening lending standards and a potential recession within the next 12 months?
We think the answer all comes down to inventories…
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Oil: A Story of Geopolitics & Supply
The International Energy Agency (IEA) states that in Q4 2022, supply outpaced demand by over 1 mb/d, despite a cut in OPEC+ production targets and disruptions to US supplies (due to winter storms).
Also, gains in energy efficiencies and soaring sales of electrical vehicles, will curb global 2023 demand growth by close to 900 kb/d in 2023. The market participation of Russia and China remains unpredictable, as sanctions have prompted Russia to seek new customers (at arguably reduced prices) for their oil, and the nature and speed of China’s reopening is still uncertain.
US Central bank policy has overshadowed China’s reopening, with the two week old banking crisis taking crude oil futures down by about $11/bbl, or 13% since March 3rd.
The US oil benchmark, Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) continues to slump as well as US crude stockpiles build. Overall, optimism is fading from the market.
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Copper: The Uncrowned King of Commodities
Like Rodin’s the Thinker, copper sits above the rest in contemplation of the current tepid macroeconomic backdrop.
Copper is the best performer this year out of the industrial metals, rising more than 7% year-to-date, while other comparable metals have fallen in an environment of slowing economic growth expectations.
There is evidence that current prices aren’t reflecting expected supply deficits, which we’ll discuss below.
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Very Low Inventory Driving Current Price Strength
We think the most likely explanation for Copper’s strength vs oil comes down to copper’s very low global inventory levels. As we’ve covered in previous articles, global inventories for copper and other industrial metals held at exchange monitored warehouses (i.e. LME & SHFE) are at record lows.
The situation looks like its gotten worse amidst all the economic worries not better, with investment Bank Goldman Sachs forecasting that the world could run out of visible copper inventories by Q3 this year, if current demand trends continue.
The re-opening of China, a major consumer of copper is a major contributor to rising copper demand expectations this year. Chinese demand rose strongly in February, the latest month of data. Currently, copper inventories are at the lowest seasonal level since 2008.
According to GS, Chinese copper demand rose 13% in February year-over-year; and they believe that the price could hit $10,500 a tonne as the Asian nation increases their post lunar new year industrial activity.
Copper Global Visible Inventories
One of the major factors affecting the strong copper price is the increasing demand for green technologies, more specifically batteries. McKinsey & Co. has identified that electrification is projected to increase annual copper demand to 36.6 million metric tons by 2031, and only rapid new mine development and the adoption of copper mitigating technologies, could potentially fill the looming copper supply gap.
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Shortfalls, Slowdowns & Supply Gaps driving an Uncertain Future
A 2022 S&P Global study found that significant copper shortfalls will begin in 2025, as a result of increased demand from the energy transition and limited new copper supply. Their rocky road scenario assumes that if current conditions continue, there will be a 10 million metric ton shortfall by 2035. Even in their high ambition scenario, which assumes significant strides in technologies for extraction and recycling techniques, a shortfall will continue until 2035.
Forecast Copper Supply & Demand Balance
Unfortunately, the mining industry will not be able to meet this supply gap from new production without a frankly unrealistic increase in drilling capital expenditures.
Many of the world’s largest copper mines are facing dwindling reserves, depleted ore-grades and are slowing production due to capital-intensive major projects being moved underground in a bid to increase access to more ore.
Looking for new deposits (called greenfield exploration), is very costly and imposes inherit risks and difficulties. Not to mention, finding copper and putting it on production takes a long time.
The past decade has seen greenfield exploration slow dramatically, as the excess supply from 2006-2012 was worked down.
S&P Global estimates that new discoveries averaged 50Mt annually from 1990 to 2010. Moving to the present, discoveries have fallen by 80% to only 8Mt / year.
Current estimates expect a cumulative supply gap of 50Mt or over two years of global demand, between 2022 and 2030.
Mining project approval rates have stalled. During the first half of 2022, the volume of committed projects totaled just 260,000 tonnes of production per year.
Mining Project Approvals by Year (kt copper)
Three Ways to Invest in a Copper Shortage
Given the significant inventory shortages we have identified above, copper prices are poised to hold up better than other commodities if we are going into a period of economic weakness.
A resumption of quantitative easing by Central Banks or falling interest rates, could easily push copper prices to new highs under the current supply shortages.
We prefer three different ways to invest in these trends, bucketed by diversification and risk.
On the lower risk end of the spectrum is the Global X Copper Miners ETF (Ticker: COPX). The ETF is well diversified with 51 positions, and the top 10 stocks taking up a little over half of portfolio.
The diversification of COPX helps you avoid taking on company risk, the risk that one company does something stupid. COPX provides exposure to the price of copper with the potential for better returns than physical copper given the operating leverage copper miners have to the underlying commodity.
Top 25 Holdings of the COPX Copper ETF
Year-to-date copper prices are outperforming the copper miners 3.4%, though in early February the copper miners were up 18%, 10% more than physical copper.
YTD Performance of Copper vs COPX ETF
Our second preferred way to invest in copper upside is to own a high-quality large miner like Southern Copper (Ticker: SCCO). Southern Copper has a market value of $55bn and generates almost 80% of revenue from copper.
Southern Copper Footprint
Yes, Southern Copper is more expensive than large mining peers like BHP or Freeport-McMoRan, but it has outperformed them significantly this year due to its heavy copper weighting. Exactly the exposure and outcome an investor would want.
Forecast EV/EBITDA in 2023
YTD Performance
Our final investment pick to take advantage of the positive copper outlook is a small cap miner, with a unique value proposition. Investing in small caps does come with higher operational risks, but this is balanced by far higher return potential as smaller miners are often mispriced, especially at the beginning of a sustained period of stable to rising commodity prices, like we may be in today.
The company we’ve chosen has a truly unique operational footprint as it produces copper but does not need a mine to do so. The company Amerigo Resources (Ticker: ARG, ARREF), which we’ve written about before on Capital10x, provides significant leverage to copper prices without exposing investors to uncertainties that come from operating a complex copper mine.
Amerigo receives waste fluid (tailings) from El Teniente, one of the largest copper mines in the world. The company extracts the remaining Copper and Molybdenum from the waste stream, selling it back to the mine at the current global copper price.
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Another risk mitigator with Amerigo is the company’s very low leverage. Cash exceeds debt which gives the company flexibility should copper prices decline for a period, if the world does go into a shallow recession.
Amerigo is trading on a trailing EV/EBITDA of 5.3x with Copper at $4.11/lb. The last time the stock traded at 5.3x EV/EBITDA copper was at $3.00/lb.
Amerigo EV/EBITDA multiple vs Copper Price
This tells us there is significant upside at current copper prices, especially seeing as EBITDA is expected to be $36 million at $3.60/lb copper which is in line with EBITDA in 2018, when the stock was at a similar multiple.
Bottom Line: Amerigo is pricing in $3.60/lb copper when prices are trading at $4.00/lb or 10% higher.
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Commodity Prices Rarely Lie
Whenever we notice two economically sensitive commodities like oil and copper diverging in price, we take notice.
After looking at the fundamentals of each, it became clear there are huge differences that likely explain the divergence.
Oil investment may be low historically, but we can see demand weakening in real time through rising inventory levels in the US and elsewhere.
Copper in contrast has an acute supply shortage. The supply situation is so critical that even as global growth and demand are weakening, prices have been rising, telling us supply just isn’t there.
Copper has the superior short term and long term demand trends and continues to be our preferred commodity investment this decade, regardless of the chances we see of a global recession in the near future.

If you see Nayanjoti being first. Has a clear advantage. And also has a big television.
How can they make such basic mistakes on a national television show is beyond me.

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You can find the original post complete with all the shiny covers here.
If you would like to be kept up to date with the upcoming lists, please subscribe to my newsletter by clicking this link. I don’t send out letters too often, pretty much once a month when this list goes out… and occasionally if I release a book or something.
As always, this is not a comprehensive list, but only includes all the books I have heard about so far.
If you have a fantasy novel you are self publishing in April or beyond, let me know by filling out THIS FORM, and I shall add it to the page. There are but 3 requirements:
1) It must be a self published fantasy novel.
2) It must have a Goodreads page.
3) It must have a cover.
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1st April – The Rascor Plains (Immortal Great Souls #2) by Phil Tucker

Progression/Cultivation
Scorio thought victory was within his grasp. He had bested the Final Gauntlet and overcome the treachery of Chancellor Praximar. But the Rascor Plains are full of peril, and his quest for truth has only just begun.
With his friends scattered and his reputation in tatters, Scorio must navigate a web of intrigue that stretches from the powerful House Hydra and the Fiery Shoals to the mysterious forces that govern the Plains. He will face foes both human and inhuman, and confront the darkest secrets of his world.
Beware the fiends, for they hunger for your soul. Beware your allies, for they may break your heart. And beware Scorio, for he will stop at nothing to uncover the truth.
Goodreads
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1st April – The System Apocalyse Short Story ANTHOLOGY #2 by Various Authors

LitRPG
Dashing tales of heroics and everyday life abound in the second System Apocalypse short story anthology. Competing alien and human settlements clash, and a simple party planner is caught between in After Party. A New York trashman and his friend fight off loan sharks and exploit the System for gain, finding treasure among others garbage in Completely Trashed and a prisoner must decide between his humanity and humanity itself in WWMRD?
With over ten stories from exciting new voices and a few veterans of the universe, the second anthology highlights the lives and struggles of humanity’s best and worst years after System advent.
The second System Apocalypse short story anthology takes place between books 4 and 6 and covers years two to six during that period.
Goodreads
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2nd April – Sul: From Gold to Iron and Rust (Sulaai #1) by Jacqui Davis & Katy Grierson

Epic Fantasy
A king destined to rule. A priest determined to protect his land. A demon out to Create chaos. A princess with her eyes on the throne.
When a demon murders the regent, young King Elmes leaves his island palace and sails north to conquer a frozen wilderness rich in resources his people have squandered –and of course, hunt down the demon. Elmes has no doubt he’ll prevail. After all, he is great like his ancestors.
But the land is already home to half-wild barbarians led by an immortal priest, who are used to weather more savage than any warrior. With a court losing confidence and a wife set on keeping the crown no matter whose head it sits on, the decisions at home prove the greater danger.
With mounting threats on all sides, Elmes wins his empire, but his arrogance leaves him cursed and trapped in the north. Without his armies, his magic, or even his own name, Elmes must face his selfishness and irresponsibility to preserve what truly matters: his young son’s life.
Goodreads
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4th April – The Ruptured Sky (Gardens of War & Wasteland #1) by Jessica A. McMinn

Epic Fantasy, Grimdark, Sword & Sorcery
A dead goddess. A broken sky. A world wasted by magic.
Princess Amikharlia wants one thing in life: control of her own fate.
On the eve of her wedding, Amika flees her homeland, seeking the truth behind the mysterious magical abilities she’d kept hidden since childhood.
Taking up the life of a demon huntress, Amika uncovers a madman’s prophecy that would have her revive an ancient goddess—and destroy the world in the process.
Will Amika become a pawn in another man’s game or continue her fight against destiny’s shackles?
As a dark and dangerous power begins to rise, she must make her choice soon.
But is laying the world to waste truly the way to save it?
Goodreads
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4th April – The Captain (The Last Horizon #1) by Will Wight

Science Fantasy
“To survive in this galaxy, you need a wand in one hand and a gun in the other.”
On a little-known planet, Archmage Varic Vallenar casts a grand spell to empower himself with the magical abilities of his alternate selves. The ritual works too well, granting Varic not only the magic but also the memories from six lives.
Including their gruesome deaths.
Now, Varic has power greater than any wizard in galactic history, but he knows that won’t be enough. The enemies he faced in those alternate lives were apocalyptic in scale. Terrors of technology and magic. Nothing that he, or anyone, can defeat.
Sun-eating extra-dimensional insects, shadowy secret organizations, genetically enhanced alien super-soldiers, ruthless mega-corporations, and hordes of cyborg undead all lurk in the darkest corners of the galaxy, and Varic knows that any of them can become a world-ending threat at any moment.
All these are beyond any wizard, no matter how many spells he’s mastered or how many interstellar warships he’s rallied to his cause. Hopeless, Varic finds himself trying to preserve what little he can from the coming doom.
Until he hears rumors of a mythical starship, an invincible vessel of heroes made to do battle against galactic threats.
A ship called The Last Horizon.
Goodreads
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14th April – Gates of Hope (Aulirean Gates #1) by J E Hannaford

Epic Fantasy
The Watcher shattered the Gates.
Now hope must arise from the shards.
Darin and Suriin enter the Black Palace of the So’Dal, at a time when monstrous Edgelands creatures return to the skies over Caldera. After exhibiting magical traits thought lost, Darin is drawn into a secret society charged with keeping the Watcher’s secrets. Now he must balance learning to control his magic, caring for Star, his new companion, and finding a way to sustain the Howlers’ power for long enough to protect Caldera from the predatory creatures of the Edgelands.
Before she arrived at the Black Palace Suriin broke the ancient rules of the So’Dal to save the life of the person she loves the most. As her search for a cure delves deeper under the mountain, is there any price she won’t pay?
On the outer moon of Tebein, Elissa’s newly awakened magic will endanger her home and family. Now she must race to find help for those she leaves behind as she escapes those who want her, and all those like her, dead.
One wrong decision by any of them could return legends to life and end five hundred cycles of peace. Will they find the solutions they need in time?
Goodreads
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15th April – The Captain (Battle Brothers #2) by Casey Hollingshead

Grimdark, Sword & Sorcery
“You wish to talk rumors? Where would I even begin? I have heard of direwolves, lindwurms, dragons, nachzehrers, webknechts, and a wiederganger at the hip of a black clad cultist. Hells, I once received a tale that the trees themselves came alive and skewered men dead with branches shaped like spears! Richter, please, the laity love to talk about all the ghouls and ghosts these woods hold, but until you see it with your own eyes…”
Now captain of a struggling mercenary company, Richter von Dagentear takes on a dangerous brigand known as Kantorek, ‘the King of Dragons.’ But bandits and thieves are not all that roam the forests. With a witch hunter’s hat atop his head and a sellsword’s blade at his hip, Richter must recruit and equip a ragtag group of fighters to not only complete contracts, but survive what evils lurk beyond the trees.
Goodreads
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20th April – Twice Upon a Name ANTHOLOGY (Tales of Mix Ups and Mistaken Identities) by Various Authors

YA
Double the name and double the magic, mystery, and mayhem
Once upon a time, a fairy tale name generator issued a challenge to a group of authors. Volume Two of these quirky stories brings double trouble.
In this clean YA anthology, spy on thieves discovering their princely identities, accompany villains seeking redemption along with accident-prone geese, and rejoice in the reunion of siblings separated at birth. Side with twins split between good and evil, giggle over mistaken identities, and discover the secrets of royal doppelgängers. When fates are intertwined by a namesake, mayhem and mischief are sure to follow.
Venture into this collection of adventurous stories by award-winning and up-and-coming authors and see if what happens once . . . happens twice!
Pssst…some characters from Once Upon A Name might make a comeback, but the two sets and all stories in them can be read as standalones.
Goodreads
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25th April – Spire Climbers (Titan Hoppers #2) by Rob J. Hayes

Progression/Cultivation, Science Fantasy
Even Titans Can Bleed.
Iro and Emil have opened their first Gates, unlocked new talents, and proved the fleet’s Hoppers aren’t stalled. Despite leaving the rank of trainee, they find their training is just beginning.
Thrown into a new squad with an explosive Mage, a cursed Surveyor, and a Vanguard with shady motives, Iro and Emil will delve deeper into the titan than ever before. There are bizarre things in the depths; pitch black oceans, nests of swarming monsters, and Spires that rip through the hull of the titan.
But what purpose do the Spires serve and can Iro and Emil reach the top in time?
Goodreads
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28th April – The Shadow Gate (Dragon Spirits #2) by L.L. MacRae

Epic Fantasy
Opening the shadow gate is the only way Fenn’s memories can be restored—and with them, his life and family.
It could also destroy the world.
Guided by dragon spirit Hassen and manipulated by the Myr, Fenn fights the corruption spreading through Tassar—and himself—in an attempt to find his family. Separated from his allies and unable to trust even his own mind, the arduous journey takes its toll.
Far from home and reunited with her sister, Calidra battles to keep her loved ones safe. But when the fickle loyalties of dragon spirits shifts, and darkness lurks around every corner, running from her fears is no longer an option.
And in the far south, consequences of the past catch up with those fighting for their freedom.
Goodreads
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28th April – Elder Epoch (Gunmetal Gods #3) by Zamil Akhtar

Epic Fantasy, Grimdark
The protector of the land is dead.
A blood plague infests the soil and sea, eldritch angels vie for dominion over hearts and souls, and holy war boils between four gunpowder empires.
The line between truth and falsehood, the righteous and the wicked, hope and annihilation is buried deep beneath blood-soaked sand.
Goodreads
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Space for more...